Highlights

• • Away (Curras) is favorite at 1.529 (implied ~65%)
• • Our conservative true win probability estimate for Curras is ~58%, requiring odds ≥1.724 for positive EV

Pros

• + Curras has more experience and a better career record than Sergi
• + Match is on clay, a surface both have exposure to (reduces surface-based uncertainty)

Cons

• - Both players show poor recent form with losses at recent M25 events
• - Small sample sizes and inconsistent results make probability estimates noisy

Details

We compare quoted market prices to what we can justify from the available player data. Tomas Curras Abasolo is the market favorite at 1.529 (implied ~65.4%) and has a significantly larger career sample and a better raw win rate than Sergi Fita Juan (Curras: 35-59 career; Sergi: 6-23). Both players have recent losses at M25 events on clay, and neither shows strong current form. Given the limited data and both players' inconsistency, we conservatively estimate Curras' true chance closer to 58% rather than the market-implied ~65%. At that probability the break-even decimal price is ~1.724; the current 1.529 is too short and yields negative EV. Therefore we do not recommend betting either side at the posted prices.

Key factors

• • Curras has a larger career sample and a better overall win-loss record than Sergi
• • Both players are coming off recent losses at M25 events on clay, indicating inconsistent form
• • Market-implied probability (65% for Curras) is higher than what available form and records justify