Highlights

• • Implied away probability at book prices is 12.5%; our estimate is 30%, creating significant value
• • Fair decimal price for the away side is ~3.333; current 8.0 is well above that threshold

Pros

• + Very high positive expected value at current odds (EV = +1.40)
• + Book price for home appears unsupported by the supplied performance data

Cons

• - Limited information on the opponent (Liam Hignett) increases model uncertainty
• - Small sample and lack of contextual details (injury, head-to-head, exact surface conditions) mean risk of unknown factors

Details

We see a clear market imbalance: the book market prices Sergio Callejon Hernando at 1.05 (implied ~95.2%) while Liam Hignett is available at 8.0 (implied 12.5%). The available player data for Sergio shows a modest career record (18-19) across clay and hard and mixed recent results, which does not justify a ~95% win probability in a one-on-one match. There is no opponent detail in the provided research to justify the heavy favorite price. Conservatively we estimate Liam Hignett's true win probability at 30% given Sergio's middling record and the absence of convincing dominance in the data; that probability produces a required fair decimal price of 3.333. At the available price of 8.0, backing the away player yields a very positive expected value: EV = 0.30 * 8.0 - 1 = +1.40 (140% ROI). We therefore identify the away side as value because the market's home-heavy pricing appears unjustified by the supplied performance data and surface notes.

Key factors

• • Market-implied home probability (1.05) is implausibly high given Sergio's 18-19 career record
• • Provided recent results are mixed — no clear dominance or injury notes to justify the short price
• • Absence of opponent information increases uncertainty and suggests the market price may reflect noise or a data/line error