Highlights

• • Implied market probability (95.2%) is far higher than Sergio's observed win rate (~48.6%).
• • Required fair decimal odds ≈ 2.057 to justify a bet on Sergio — well above current 1.05.

Pros

• + We rely on an observable career sample rather than speculation.
• + Clear mismatch between market-implied probability and documented performance, making value assessment straightforward.

Cons

• - No information on the opponent (Liam Hignett) in the provided research, adding uncertainty to the matchup context.
• - Career-level win rate may not capture recent form, fitness, or matchup-specific edges not present in the dataset.

Details

We compare the market price (home 1.05 implied ~95.2% win chance) to Sergio Callejon Hernando's observable record and form. The only available player-specific data shows a 18-19 career record (18/37 ≈ 48.65% win rate) with mixed recent results and activity on clay and hard courts. There is no information on the opponent (Liam Hignett) in the provided research to suggest a major mismatch. Using Sergio's measured historical win rate as the best available baseline produces a true-win estimate around 48.6%, which implies fair odds of about 2.057 decimal. The current market price (1.05) substantially underprices his true loss probability and therefore offers large negative expected value; we do not recommend taking the heavy favorite at these prices.

Key factors

• • Sergio Callejon Hernando career record 18-19 (≈48.6% win rate) — primary data point available
• • Recent results appear mixed (no sustained winning streak in provided recent matches)
• • Market price (1.05) implies ~95.2% probability, which is far above what available data supports
• • No opponent information provided to justify the market's heavy favorite pricing