Highlights

• • Book implied probability for home is ~72% which appears overstated versus player profiles
• • Away price 2.82 requires only ~35.5% true chance to break even; our model gives ~45%

Pros

• + Positive expected value at quoted odds even under conservative probability estimates
• + Opponent profiles and recent clay activity support backing the underdog

Cons

• - Small sample sizes and limited direct-form details increase outcome variance
• - No head-to-head data and possible event-specific factors (fitness, conditions) are unknown

Details

The market heavily favors the home player at 1.386 (implied 72%), but the underlying profiles in the research do not support such a large gap. Maxence Beauge has a slightly better career win-rate (27-25) and more match experience than Sergio Callejon Hernando (18-19). Both players have clay experience and recent activity on similar surfaces, and Maxence’s recent clay results (M15 Huy) suggest comfort on this surface. Given the modestly superior record and relevant recent clay matches for Beauge, we estimate his true win probability materially above the book-implied 35.5% (2.82). Using a conservative true probability of 45% for Beauge produces positive expected value at the available 2.82 price (EV = 0.45*2.82 - 1 = +0.269). The market margin (~7.6%) inflates the favorite; therefore the away line represents value provided our assessment of relative form and match-level experience is correct. Key uncertainties are short career samples, lack of direct H2H, and event-level form volatility, but even a slightly lower true probability (≈38–40%) would still leave a small positive EV.

Key factors

• • Maxence Beauge has a slightly better overall win-loss record and more matches (27-25 vs 18-19)
• • Both players have clay experience; recent Maxence results include clay events indicating surface comfort
• • Book market overprices the home player (implied 72%), creating value on the underdog at 2.82