Seungmin Park/S. Vujic vs Seongwoo Cho/Dukchee Lee
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We do not recommend a bet: given Park's weak recent form and the lack of doubles/opponent data, the market price (1.75) is too short versus our ~45% win estimate — fair odds would be ~2.222.
Highlights
- • Market implies ~57.1% for home; our estimate ~45%
- • Need ≥2.222 decimal to have positive EV on the home side
Pros
- + Home is priced as favorite, which can reflect market confidence
- + If additional positive doubles info emerges (partner form/injuries), odds could shorten further
Cons
- - Park's provided record and recent matches show poor form on hard courts
- - No doubles data for partners or opponents in the research → high uncertainty
Details
We estimate that the market (home 1.75 -> implied 57.1%) overstates the true chance for Seungmin Park/S. Vujic. Park's provided career data shows limited and poor recent form (2-5 overall, recent losses on hard courts), and there is no information in the research about his doubles partner (S. Vujic) or the opponents (Seongwoo Cho/Dukchee Lee). Given the lack of doubles-specific and opponent data, we assign a conservative true probability for the home side. At our estimated probability (45%), the fair decimal price would be ~2.222, substantially above the current 1.75; therefore there is no value to back the home side at available prices.
Key factors
- • Seungmin Park's limited match sample and weak recent results (career 2-5) indicate poor current form
- • Research contains no doubles-specific form or partner/opponent information, raising uncertainty
- • Market-implied probability (1.75 -> 57.1%) is higher than our estimated true probability (45%), so no value at current price