Highlights

• • Market-implied probability 79.8% vs our 88% estimate — clear edge
• • Park's recent form on hard courts is weak (2-5 overall with recent straight losses)

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current widely-available price (EV ~10.4% per unit)
• + Market appears to underprice the away player's chance relative to Park's documented weakness

Cons

• - Research contains minimal information on the away player, increasing model uncertainty
• - Small sample size for Park's career means outcomes can be more volatile than estimated

Details

We compare the market price (Away 1.254 => implied win probability 79.8%) to our estimate of the true win probability for the away player. The only provided player data is for Seungmin Park, who has a short pro span (2024-09-16 to 2025-03-17), a 2-5 record and recent straight losses on hard courts. That form profile suggests Park is a clear underdog here. Given Park's limited wins, recent losses on hard and no positive indicators in the research, we assign Park a low true-win probability (12%) and therefore the away player a true-win probability of 88%. At those beliefs the away decimal 1.254 offers positive expected value (EV = 0.88*1.254 - 1 = +0.1035, ~10.4% ROI). The market underestimates the away player's chance by ~8.2 percentage points (79.8% market vs. our 88%), which creates value at the quoted price. We acknowledge the sample on Park is small and there is no direct info on the away player in the research, so our estimate includes conservative margin for uncertainty.

Key factors

• • Seungmin Park's poor recent form (2-5 record) and straight losses on hard courts
• • Market strongly favors the away player (implied 79.8%) but our estimate is higher (88%)
• • Limited sample size and lack of injury/H2H info increases uncertainty; we applied conservative margin