Sevil Yuldasheva vs Marianna Argyrokastriti
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Market pricing is marginally too short on the heavy favorite; estimated true probability (~90%) implies a fair price of ~1.111, so we recommend no bet at the current 1.11.
Highlights
- • Sevil has shown weak form and recent losses on hard courts.
- • Current away price (1.11) is just inside the threshold where value would be minimal; it needs to drift to ≥1.111 for positive EV.
Pros
- + Market consensus correctly identifies a strong favorite.
- + If the price drifts slightly higher, a small positive EV opportunity would open.
Cons
- - Current price is slightly too short to produce positive expected value based on our probability estimate.
- - Sparse information on the favorite’s opponent increases outcome uncertainty.
Details
We compared the market prices to our estimated win probability. Sevil Yuldasheva has a 10-21 record with recent losses on hard courts and limited positive form, while the market makes Marianna Argyrokastriti an overwhelming favorite at 1.11 (implied ~90.09%). Given the available data, we estimate the away player's true win probability at about 90.0%. At that probability the fair decimal price is ~1.111; the current market price of 1.11 yields a marginally negative EV (-0.1% on a 1-unit stake). Because the market price is slightly too short relative to our estimate and there is limited information on the away player to justify a higher certainty, we do not recommend a bet at current prices. If the away price drifts to 1.111 or higher, it would meet our minimum threshold for positive expected value.
Key factors
- • Sevil Yuldasheva poor recent form (10-21 career, recent losses on hard)
- • Market strongly favors the away player (1.11 decimal implies ~90.09%)
- • Limited available data on Marianna Argyrokastriti increases uncertainty