Sevil Yuldasheva vs Marianne Argyrokastriti

Highlights

• • Bookmaker-implied probability for the favorite is ~83.9%, but player profiles look balanced
• • At 4.25 the underdog shows positive EV under conservative true-probability assumptions

Pros

• + Strong value if true player quality is similar as the profiles suggest
• + High payout relative to conservative estimated win probability

Cons

• - Research is limited — no H2H, detailed rankings, or injury reports to confirm the edge
• - Large market discrepancy could be driven by data not present in the provided sources

Details

We find value backing Sevil Yuldasheva at 4.25 because the market strongly favors Marianne Argyrokastriti (implied ~83.9%) yet the available player data shows virtually identical career records (both 10-21) and similar recent form. There is no clear performance, surface, or injury advantage documented for Argyrokastriti in the provided research to justify such a short price. Conservatively estimating Yuldasheva's true win probability at 33.0% (reflecting parity between the two players plus some underdog upside), the fair odds would be ~3.030; at the available 4.25 the expected value is positive. Calculation: EV = 0.33 * 4.25 - 1 = 0.4025 (≈40.3% ROI). Because the bookmaker price implies a much lower chance for Yuldasheva than the evidence supports, this price represents value. We note uncertainty due to limited distinguishing information and absence of H2H or injury data, so we apply a conservative probability estimate.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical documented records (10-21) and recent form
• • Market implies an outsized probability for the favorite not supported by available data
• • No injury, H2H, or surface advantage information present to justify heavy favorite