Sevil Yuldasheva vs Tanisha Kashyap
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on the home price (2.31). Given the symmetric profiles and no differentiators, a conservative true win probability of 48% for Sevil Yuldasheva yields ~10.9% ROI at current odds.
Highlights
- • Market implies 65% for away vs 43.3% for home; data does not support that gap
- • Estimated true home probability 48% -> positive EV at 2.31
Pros
- + Clear numerical value vs implied market probability
- + Conservative probability estimate based on identical profiles reduces model risk
Cons
- - Public data is sparse and nearly identical for both players, increasing uncertainty
- - If there are unreported injuries, conditions, or H2H edges not in the research, the estimate may be wrong
Details
The market prices Tanisha Kashyap as a clear favorite (implied 65.0%) while Sevil Yuldasheva is priced at an implied 43.3%. The available player data shows near-identical career records (10-21), identical recent-form entries, and the same surface experience, with no injury or head-to-head information to differentiate them. Given the symmetric profiles and lack of distinguishing factors, we treat the baseline expectation as roughly even-to-slight-home edge due to market margin bias toward the favorite. Conservatively estimating Sevil Yuldasheva's true win probability at 48.0% produces value at the current home price of 2.31 (EV = 0.109 per unit). The book's outside 8-9% vig and an apparent overreaction toward the away player create a profitable discrepancy for backing the home under the stated estimate.
Key factors
- • Both players show nearly identical career records and surface experience in the provided data
- • No injury, H2H, or differentiating form information is present to justify the heavy away favoritism
- • Current market implies a 65% away win probability which appears inflated given symmetric profiles