Shannon Lam vs Ann Akaasha Ceuca

Highlights

• • Market overprices Shannon (1.394) relative to her documented form
• • Away at 2.8 yields EV ≈ +0.764 per 1 unit at our 63% win estimate

Pros

• + Large theoretical edge between our probability and the available odds
• + Break-even odds (1.587) are far below current market price, indicating a wide margin

Cons

• - Very limited publicly provided information on the away player introduces model uncertainty
• - No head-to-head, injury, or more detailed surface-matchup data available to refine the estimate

Details

We compare market prices to what the available player data imply. The market makes Shannon Lam a strong favorite at 1.394 (implied win ~71.7%), but her documented record (10-21 career, poor recent form with multiple losses in the last 10) and limited clay-specific upside make such a high implied probability unlikely. Given Shannon's weakness and that she has played clay and hard with a sub-.350 career win rate, we assign the opponent a substantially higher true win probability than the market's ~35.7% for the away side. Using a conservative estimate that the away player (Ann Akaasha Ceuca) has a 63.0% chance to win this matchup, the current away decimal 2.8 produces strong positive value (EV = 0.63*2.8 - 1 = 0.764). The minimum fair decimal odds to break even on our 63.0% estimate is 1.587, well below the available 2.8 quote, so we identify the away side as value. We acknowledge uncertainty due to limited data on the away player and no head-to-head information, so we treat this as a medium-risk value play rather than a high-confidence recommendation.

Key factors

• • Shannon Lam's poor overall record (10-21) and weak recent form
• • Market implies a ~71.7% chance for Shannon which appears overstated given her results
• • Current away price 2.8 offers substantial margin over our fair odds (1.587) based on available data