Shannon Lam vs Ann Akasha Ceuca

Highlights

• • Book implied for home (1.38) far exceeds what research supports
• • At our 46% estimate the away price 2.80 yields +0.288 EV per unit

Pros

• + Clear pricing discrepancy between implied and estimated true probability
• + Research shows parity between players, supporting underdog value

Cons

• - Player sample sizes and provided data are limited; uncertainty remains
• - No head-to-head or additional situational factors were available to refine probability

Details

We compare the bookmaker's implied probabilities to our assessment based on the research. The market prices Shannon Lam at 1.38 (implied ~72.5%) and Ann Akasha Ceuca at 2.80 (implied ~35.7%). Both players show nearly identical career records (10-21) and experience on clay and hard courts in the provided data, with no injury or form edge visible in the research. Given that profile parity, any home advantage is likely small and does not justify a ~72% win probability for the home player. We estimate a more balanced true probability (Shannon ~54%, Ann ~46%). At that estimate Ann’s fair odds are ~2.17. The current available price of 2.80 for Ann therefore contains value: EV = 0.46 * 2.80 - 1 = +0.288 (28.8% ROI per unit). We used the current decimal away price (2.80) for the EV calculation.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records (10-21) and surface experience
• • No clear injury or form edge is present in the provided research
• • Book market heavily favors home (implied ~72.5%), creating value on the underdog