Shannon Lam vs Tian Jialin
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find small value on Shannon Lam at 2.15 because the supplied data shows near-identical profiles and a fair probability (~49%) implies odds ~2.041 — the market price exceeds that.
Highlights
- • Book prices overvalue the favorite given symmetric data
- • Shannon at 2.15 offers ~5.4% edge by our estimate
Pros
- + Positive EV at current widely-available price (2.15)
- + Decision based on neutral data — avoids overweighting recent outlier results
Cons
- - Research is sparse and similar for both players, so estimate relies on assumption of symmetry
- - Edge is modest and vulnerable to any omitted information (injury, matchup specifics, H2H)
Details
Market prices Tian Jialin as a clear favorite at 1.637 (implied 61.1%) while Shannon Lam is priced 2.15 (implied 46.5%). The available research shows both players with nearly identical career records (10-21) and both having played clay and hard courts; there is no clear form or surface edge in the data provided. Given the symmetric profiles and lack of distinguishing information, we estimate the matchup is much closer to a coin flip than the market implies and assign Shannon a 49.0% chance to win. At that probability Shannon's fair odds are ~2.041; the offered 2.15 exceeds that threshold and yields positive expected value. Calculation: EV = 0.49 * 2.15 - 1 = 0.0535 (5.35% ROI). We view this as a small value edge driven by the market overstating the favorite in a matchup where the players' records and surface history in the provided research are essentially equivalent.
Key factors
- • Both players show near-identical career records (10-21) in the provided data
- • Surface is clay; both players have clay listed among surfaces played in research
- • Market implies a large favorite but research provides no clear edge for the favorite