Sharanya Shetty vs Mar Cabassers Morros
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value identified: the favorite’s price is still too low for positive EV under conservative assumptions, and the underdog’s price would require a higher true chance than we assign.
Highlights
- • Away implied probability ~92.6%, our estimate 90% → negative EV on favorite
- • Underdog needs >14.286% true chance to be +EV; our conservative estimate is ~10%
Pros
- + Market clarity: extreme favorite pricing is easy to evaluate
- + Conservative approach avoids overbetting on limited information
Cons
- - No match-specific data available; true probabilities may differ if new info emerges
- - Small edges could exist if inside information or late injuries are revealed
Details
We estimate the market is overstating the certainty of the away favorite but not by enough to create positive EV on either side. The market prices Mar Cabassers Morros at 1.08 (implied ~92.6%) and Sharanya Shetty at 7.00 (implied ~14.3%). With no external form, surface, injury or H2H data available, we make a conservative assessment: we estimate the away player’s true win probability at 90% and the home player at 10%. At those probabilities the away line (1.08) yields negative EV (0.90*1.08 - 1 = -0.028) and the home line would require a true win probability >14.286% to be profitable, which is above our conservative 10% estimate. Therefore we do not identify value at current widely-available prices.
Key factors
- • No independent data on form, injuries, surface or H2H — we use conservative priors
- • Away market price (1.08) implies >92% win probability, above our conservative 90% estimate
- • Home would need >14.286% true chance (odds 7.00) to be +EV; we estimate considerably lower