Highlights

• • Our fair away probability: 65% (min profitable odds 1.538) — market is 1.50 so no value
• • Home would need ~2.857 to be +EV; current 2.45 is too short

Pros

• + Away side looks favored based on home pair's weak form and limited winning history
• + Market margin is small; a slightly longer away quote (>=1.538) would become value

Cons

• - Research lacks any performance data for the named away players, increasing uncertainty
• - Small sample sizes and sparse doubles-specific data make probability estimates noisy

Details

We estimate the away side (C. Broom/M. Whitehouse) to be the stronger proposition based on the available profiles for the home pairing: Shinji Hazawa has a modest win rate (13-19 overall) and Yamato Sueoka shows almost no winning record (0-4) in the provided samples, suggesting the home duo are underpowered. The market decimals are Home 2.45 (implied 40.8%) and Away 1.50 (implied 66.7%). Our modeled fair win probability for the away team is ~65% (p=0.65), which implies a minimum fair decimal price of 1.538. The current away price (1.50) is below that threshold, producing slightly negative EV (EV = 0.65*1.50 - 1 = -0.025). The home side fares worse on form and combined experience; our fair home probability is about 35% (complement of away), requiring ~2.857 to be +EV, while the market offers 2.45. Given both sides are priced below our required thresholds and limited data on the opponents, there is no positive expected value at available prices, so we avoid recommending a bet.

Key factors

• • Home pairing shows weak combined recent results and limited wins in provided profiles
• • Market-implied probability for the away side (66.7%) slightly exceeds our fair estimate (65%), removing value
• • Data on the opposing duo is absent in the research, increasing uncertainty and model conservatism