Shintaro Mochizuki vs Jan-Lennard Struff

Highlights

• • Market implies Mochizuki 32.8% but we estimate ~55%
• • Fair price ~1.818 vs available 3.05 — significant edge

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current quoted odds
• + Mochizuki shows a stronger win-rate across the provided match sample

Cons

• - No direct head-to-head or detailed surface/venue context in the supplied research
• - Our probability includes a conservative adjustment for uncertainty; unobserved factors could favor Struff

Details

We identify clear value on Shintaro Mochizuki at 3.05 decimal. The market implies Mochizuki has ~32.8% chance (1/3.05) while Jan-Lennard Struff's market price implies ~72.5% for Struff. Our assessment, using the provided career records and recent form, favors Mochizuki materially. Mochizuki's record in the provided span is 47-31 (60.3% win rate) versus Struff at 20-27 (42.6%). Converting these win rates into a head-to-head probability and then conservatively adjusting for uncertainty gives Mochizuki an estimated true win probability of ~55%. At that probability the fair decimal price is ~1.818, well below the available 3.05, producing a strongly positive expected value. We acknowledge limited direct H2H and contextual factors in the research, so we conservatively discounted an initial higher model estimate to 55% to reflect uncertainty.

Key factors

• • Mochizuki's superior win rate in the provided career span (47-31 vs 20-27)
• • Market heavily favors Struff (implied Mochizuki probability ~32.8%), creating a large discrepancy
• • Limited direct H2H and contextual details in the research increase uncertainty, so estimates are conservative