Shintaro Mochizuki vs Yannick Hanfmann
Tennis
2025-09-11 09:07
Start: 2025-09-12 06:35
Summary
Pick: home
EV: 0.074
Current Odds
Home 1.71|Away 2.14
Best Odds
Match Info
Match key: Shintaro Mochizuki_Yannick Hanfmann_2025-09-12
Analysis
Summary: We find small positive value on Mochizuki at 1.79 because his inferred win probability (~60%) exceeds the market-implied probability (~55.9%).
Highlights
- • Estimated true win probability: 60.0%
- • Current market price 1.79 implies 55.9% — gap offers ~7.4% ROI
Pros
- + Stronger career win rate in the supplied data
- + No negative injury or form notes in the provided research to counter the edge
Cons
- - Edge is modest — outcome variance in a single match is high
- - Limited head-to-head and contextual details in the supplied research increase uncertainty
Details
We estimate Shintaro Mochizuki to be the value side. Using only the provided profiles, Mochizuki has a stronger overall win rate (47-31, ~60%) than Yannick Hanfmann (32-27, ~54%) and both players show similar surface exposure (Hard/Clay/Grass) in the research. The market prices imply ~55.9% for Mochizuki (1/1.79) while our assessed true probability is 60.0%, producing positive expected value. There are no injury flags or other negative notes in the supplied research to downgrade Mochizuki. Therefore at the available decimal price of 1.79 we find a small but positive edge.
Key factors
- • Mochizuki's superior overall win rate in provided data (47-31 ≈ 60%)
- • Both players have comparable surface experience (Hard included) per profiles
- • Market-implied probability (55.9%) is below our estimated true probability (60%), creating value