Shiyu Ye vs Shannon Lam
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Given nearly identical profiles and records, we see Shiyu Ye as ~50% likely to win; at 2.15 this represents positive expected value versus the market.
Highlights
- • Implied market probability for Ye (1/2.15) = 46.5%; our estimate = 50%
- • Small but real upside: expected ROI ≈ 7.5% at current price
Pros
- + Current odds (2.15) exceed our fair-price threshold (2.00)
- + No research-based edge for Shannon to justify heavy favorite pricing
Cons
- - Player profiles and recent form data are sparse and nearly identical — uncertainty remains
- - Market vig and thin ITF lines can move quickly; this is a modest edge, not a large one
Details
We estimate the matchup between Shiyu Ye and Shannon Lam to be essentially even based on the provided profiles: identical career span, identical overall records (10-21) and both playing clay and hard courts. The market prices Shannon as the clear favorite (decimal 1.637, implied ~61.1%) while Shiyu Ye is priced at 2.15 (implied ~46.5%). Given the near-identical data available, we assign Ye a 50.0% true win probability. At that probability, the break-even decimal price is 2.00. The current price of 2.15 therefore contains positive expected value: EV = 0.50 * 2.15 - 1 = +0.075 (7.5% ROI). The market's probabilities sum to >1 (vig ~7.5%), suggesting some distortion; since no additional performance or injury edge is present in the research for Shannon, the higher market price on Shannon looks overstated. We therefore recommend taking the higher decimal on Shiyu Ye as a value bet at the quoted 2.15.
Key factors
- • Both players show identical overall records (10-21) in the provided data
- • Both have played on clay and hard — no clear surface advantage evident
- • Market implies Shannon as a solid favorite despite near-identical profiles, creating value on Ye