Shiyu Ye vs Valentina Losciale
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see value backing Valentina Losciale at 2.64 because the market overstates the favorite; our 43% win estimate for Losciale yields positive EV (~13.5%).
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability for the favorite (~70.6%) appears overstated given similar player profiles
- • Underdog Losciale at 2.64 offers ~+13.5% expected return versus our probability model
Pros
- + Clear positive EV at current widely-available odds
- + Both players' records and surfaces suggest a close match, supporting a higher true probability for the underdog
Cons
- - Overall data is limited and both players have poor recent win records, increasing variance
- - No H2H or detailed form/injury information to strongly differentiate players; estimate relies on parity assumption
Details
We find value on Valentina Losciale (away) because the market prices Shiyu Ye as a heavy favorite (implied ~70.6% at 1.417) despite nearly identical career records and surface history for both players. The research shows both players with similar match counts and records (10-21) and both have experience on clay and hard courts; there is no clear decisive edge for the home player. Given the parity in form and lack of distinguishing factors (no known injury or dominant H2H), a fair true probability for Losciale is materially higher than the market-implied 37.9% for the away at 2.64. We estimate Losciale's win probability at 43%, which produces positive expected value vs the current price (EV = 0.43*2.64 - 1 ≈ +0.135). Therefore the away line appears to be mispriced and represents a value bet.
Key factors
- • Both players show nearly identical career records and surface experience (clay/hard), implying a close matchup
- • Bookmakers' favorite price (1.417) implies an outsized probability (~70.6%) not supported by the research
- • No reported injuries or clear form advantage for the home player, increasing likelihood the underdog is undervalued