Sho Katayama/Yusuke Kusuhara vs Keisuke Saitoh/Daisuke Sumizawa
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see value on the away team at 2.43 because the market overweights the home side despite one home player being clearly inexperienced; our 53% win estimate yields ~0.29 EV per unit.
Highlights
- • Away odds (2.43) exceed our breakeven threshold (1.887) given our 53% estimate
- • Home side is handicapped by one player with virtually no winning history
Pros
- + Positive EV at current widely available away price
- + Away pairing has more match experience and steadier recent records
Cons
- - Limited doubles-specific data and small sample sizes increase uncertainty
- - Unseen factors (team chemistry, match-day conditions) could swing outcome
Details
We estimate the away pair (Keisuke Saitoh/Daisuke Sumizawa) is the better value despite market pricing favoring the home side. The home team is split between a clearly inexperienced player (Sho Katayama, 0-2 career record) and a competent partner (Yusuke Kusuhara, positive record), while the away duo combine more match experience and near-.500 or better recent form. All players have hard-court experience, so surface advantage is neutral. The market prices the home side at 1.50 (implied ~66.7%), which overstates their likelihood given one partner’s inexperience; we estimate the away team’s true win probability at 53%. At the quoted away price of 2.43 (implied ~41%), this creates positive expected value.
Key factors
- • Home pairing includes an inexperienced player (0-2), which likely reduces team effectiveness in pressure moments
- • Away duo have substantially more match volume and near-50%+ win rates, suggesting steadier performance
- • Surface is hard for all players, minimizing a surface-based edge and making player experience and form more decisive