Shria Atturu vs Alana Subasic

Highlights

• • Alana priced at 1.06 implies near-certainty that isn't supported by the data
• • At our 20% estimate, Shria at 8.5 yields a large positive EV (0.70)

Pros

• + Large positive expected value versus current market price
• + Both players have similar profiles and recent form, supporting a much closer matchup

Cons

• - Extremely short favorite can indicate non-public info (injury/withdrawal) not present in the research
• - Research lacks H2H, surface for Kayseri, and up-to-the-minute fitness updates — adding uncertainty

Details

We see a stark market skew: Alana Subasic is priced at 1.06 (implied ~94%), which would require near-certainty of victory. The research shows both players have nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar recent form on clay/hard with no injury or H2H information to justify a 94% probability. Given parity in results and surface history, we estimate Shria Atturu's true win probability materially higher than the 11.8% implied by 8.5. Using a conservative, evidence-based estimate of 20% true probability for Shria (reflecting comparable ability and no disqualifying factors), the current decimal price 8.5 yields positive value (EV = 0.20*8.5 - 1 = 0.70). We recommend backing the home underdog only because the market price for Alana is implausibly short; however, risk remains elevated because extreme favorites sometimes indicate non-public reasons (injury/withdrawal) not present in the provided data.

Key factors

• • Market implies Alana at ~94% which is implausible given available data
• • Both players show nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar surface history
• • No injury or H2H information provided to justify a heavy favorite
• • Current home price 8.5 implies only ~11.8% — we estimate substantially higher true chance