Highlights

• • Market implies Atturu win prob ≈80.3% (1/1.244)
• • Our estimate for Atturu is ~35%, making the current price unattractive

Pros

• + Atturu is the market favorite, so a bet would be short-priced and likely low variance if correct
• + If there are unreported factors (injury to opponent, home advantage) the market price could be justified

Cons

• - Provided data shows weak career record and recent losses for Atturu
• - Huge discrepancy between market-implied probability and our modelled probability indicates negative EV

Details

We compared the market price (Shria Atturu 1.244) to a realistic assessment based solely on the provided research. Shria Atturu's documented career record is 10-21 (≈32% career win-rate) with recent results showing multiple losses. The market implies a ~80.3% win probability for Atturu (1/1.244), which is materially higher than what her form and career numbers justify. Given the lack of any positive indicators in the provided data and no information on the opponent that would explain such a large market tilt toward Atturu, we judge the favorite price to be overvalued. Therefore we do not recommend taking the home moneyline at current odds; the market would need to offer substantially larger returns (decimal ~2.857) for a value play based on our probability estimate.

Key factors

• • Shria Atturu career record 10-21 (≈32% win rate)
• • Recent form shows multiple losses in the provided recent matches
• • Market strongly favours Atturu (implied ~80.3%) despite no supportive data on her form or opponent