Highlights

• • Implied probability at 1.30 = 76.9%, our estimate = 70.0%
• • Insufficient opponent data raises uncertainty

Pros

• + Both home players have experience on hard courts
• + Uchida has a larger match sample and recent Challenger activity

Cons

• - Recent results shown for both include losses in late August, indicating mixed form
• - No information on the opposing team prevents confident favoritism

Details

We compare the market-implied probability for the home doubles (1/1.30 = 76.9%) to our estimated true probability of 70.0%. Our estimate is based on the available profiles: both Shunsuke Nakagawa and Kaichi Uchida have solid experience on hard courts but recent results (late-August losses listed in their recent match lines) are mixed and do not clearly justify a ~77% market price. There is no information on the opposing pair (Ryotaro Matsumura/J. Mridha) in the provided sources, increasing uncertainty. Because the market price (1.30) implies a higher win probability than our assessment, we find no positive expected value at current odds and therefore do not recommend a bet.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (1.30) is ~76.9%, above our estimated 70% true win probability
• • Both home players have recent match losses and mixed form on hard courts in late August
• • No provided data on the away pairing increases uncertainty and downside risk