Highlights

• • Market price 1.50 implies 66.7% win chance; we estimate ~62%
• • Required odds for positive EV are ~1.613 or higher

Pros

• + Nakagawa has more hard-court match experience and a superior record overall
• + Opponent's recent form is on clay, suggesting a surface mismatch

Cons

• - Nakagawa's recent results are mixed and sample sizes are modest
• - Limited direct data and no clear recent head-to-head information increase uncertainty

Details

We estimate Nakagawa is the stronger pick on hard courts: he has more matches on hard and a better overall record (11-13 with hard-court experience) while Mridha's limited record (2-6) is concentrated on clay. The market price of 1.50 implies a 66.7% probability; we estimate Nakagawa's true win probability at ~62%. At the quoted 1.50 this produces a negative expected value (EV = 0.62 * 1.50 - 1 = -0.07), so there is no value to back Nakagawa at current prices. To find value we would need decimal odds >= 1.613 to reach break-even given our probability estimate.

Key factors

• • Nakagawa has more hard-court experience and a better overall record than Mridha
• • Mridha's recent matches and results are primarily on clay, making his hard-court projection weaker
• • Market-implied probability (66.7%) exceeds our estimated true probability (62%), creating negative EV at current odds