Shunsuke Nakagawa vs Kaichi Uchida

Highlights

• • Nakagawa estimated win chance ~22%; needs >=4.545 to be a positive EV bet
• • Market heavily favors Uchida (implied 83.6%) but we only give him ~78% — favorite is slightly overbet, not enough to justify the underdog price

Pros

• + Clear threshold number (4.545) to watch for value on Nakagawa
• + Conservative estimate based on records and recent form prevents chasing small edges

Cons

• - Limited detailed performance data and no H2H available increases uncertainty
• - Small gap between market and our estimate means opportunities are marginal and sensitive to new info (injuries, withdrawals)

Details

We estimate Shunsuke Nakagawa's chance to win at ~22% given his 11-13 career record, limited recent positive form on hard courts, and Kaichi Uchida's greater match volume and slightly stronger recent results in Sapporo. The market prices Nakagawa at 4.19 (implied 23.9%) and Uchida at 1.195 (implied 83.6%). Our model gives Nakagawa ~22% (Uchida ~78%), which means the market actually slightly overstates Uchida but not enough to create value on the underdog at 4.19. To beat the market on Nakagawa we'd need at least 4.545 decimal odds (1/0.22). At the current home price (4.19) the expected value is negative (EV = 0.22*4.19 - 1 = -0.078), so we cannot recommend a bet.

Key factors

• • Relative form: Nakagawa has a losing overall record (11-13) and limited strong recent results on hard courts
• • Experience/volume: Uchida (31-30) has more match experience this season and recent wins in Sapporo
• • Market pricing: Uchida's implied probability (83.6%) exceeds our estimate (78%), but not enough to flip value to the underdog at 4.19