Shunsuke Nakagawa/Kaichi Uchida vs Yuki Mochizuki/Masakatsu Noguchi
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Market prices overvalue the home duo relative to our conservative 68% estimate; no value exists at 1.34, so we recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Home implied probability = 74.6% vs our 68% estimate
- • Negative EV at current home price: -0.089 per unit
Pros
- + Home pair includes experienced Kaichi Uchida with substantial match volume
- + All players have recent activity on hard courts, so no surface mismatch
Cons
- - Market price is steep for the home side and exceeds our calculated win probability
- - Doubles-specific records and partner (Noguchi) data are incomplete, raising uncertainty
Details
We compared the market price (home 1.34 -> implied 74.6%) to our estimate of the home pair's true win probability (68%). The research shows all players have experience on hard courts and mixed recent form: Uchida is the most experienced, Nakagawa has limited wins, Mochizuki has a stronger singles record but we lack data on Noguchi. Given the limited doubles-specific data and the absence of injury reports, we assign a conservative true probability below the market-implied level. At our 68% estimate the home line (1.34) produces negative expected value, so we do not recommend backing either side at current prices.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability for home (1.34) = ~74.6%, which is above our estimate
- • All players have hard-court activity but mixed recent results; Uchida is the strongest credential
- • Limited or missing doubles-specific data (no profile for Noguchi) increases uncertainty