Highlights

• • Underdog price (3.69) implies only a 27.1% chance — below our 34% estimate
• • Both players lack recorded grass experience, reducing surface-driven edge for the favorite

Pros

• + Price offers meaningful cushion vs our probability model
• + Surface parity (no grass history for either) reduces favorite’s predictive advantage

Cons

• - Banthia's career record is poor (4-11) and sample sizes are small — higher variance
• - Wishaya has more match experience and a better raw win rate, so the model could be wrong in favor of the favorite

Details

We believe Siddhant Banthia is overpriced at 3.69. Normalizing the limited career win rates from the provided profiles (Banthia 4/15 = 26.7%, Wishaya 19/46 = 41.3%) and adjusting for very small samples and similar lack of grass experience, we estimate Banthia's true chance is higher than his raw career rate because head-to-head and surface advantage are effectively neutral (both have no grass background listed). Using a conservative blended probability of 34% for Banthia to win produces positive edge versus the market-implied probability of 27.1% (1/3.69). The favorite is very short (1.265) and would require an implausibly high true win chance (~79%) to represent value, so we reject the favorite and take the underdog at current pricing.

Key factors

• • Both players have no recorded grass match experience in the provided profiles, which levels the surface advantage
• • Banthia's small sample raw win rate underestimates his head-to-head/chance in a neutral-surface qualifier setting
• • Market heavily favors Wishaya (1.265); that price requires an unusually high true win probability (~79%) to be fair