Highlights

• • Home odds 1.645 imply ~60.8% win chance; we estimate ~53%
• • At our estimate the fair price is ~1.887 — current market lacks value

Pros

• + Market offers clear pricing on both sides (liquid moneyline)
• + Both teams are well-represented in the provided data so uncertainty is moderate rather than extreme

Cons

• - Profiles show poor recent form for all four players, increasing match outcome variance
• - No doubles-specific form or H2H information in the provided research to justify taking the favorite at current price

Details

We see near-parity across both pairs in the supplied profiles: all four players show very similar career records (around 10–22) and recent results dominated by losses, with no doubles-specific form or head-to-head data to separate the teams. The market prices the home pairing at 1.645 (implied probability ~60.8%) versus 2.20 for the away pair. Given the available information we assign a conservative estimated true win probability for the home side of 53.0% (0.53). At that probability the fair decimal price would be ~1.887, meaning the current home price of 1.645 is too short and offers negative expectation. Calculation: EV = 0.53 * 1.645 - 1 = -0.128 (≈ -12.8% ROI on a 1-unit bet). Because the expected value is negative at the current market price, we do not recommend betting either side.

Key factors

• • Both pairs show nearly identical career records and recent results in the supplied data
• • Limited doubles-specific data or head-to-head information to identify a clear edge
• • Market-implied probability for home (≈60.8%) is substantially higher than our estimated true probability (53%)