Highlights

• • Ambrosio is a heavy market favorite despite a ~32% career win rate
• • At 2.43, the away side yields positive EV under conservative true-probability assumptions

Pros

• + Clear positive EV at current away odds (0.458 ROI per unit)
• + Market appears to overvalue the home player based on supplied data

Cons

• - No direct data on Aneta Kucmova in the research increases model uncertainty
• - Unknown surface/conditions and potential unreported factors could shift true probabilities

Details

We see Silvia Ambrosio priced as a clear favorite at 1.55 (implied win probability 64.5%) despite a weak career record (10-21, ~32% win rate) and very poor recent form. The market appears to be over-favoring Ambrosio relative to the evidence available to us. With no opponent data provided in the research, we conservatively assign Aneta Kucmova a substantially higher true chance than the market-implied 41.2% at 2.43 — we estimate Kucmova's true win probability at 60%. At decimal 2.43 this produces positive expected value (EV = 0.6*2.43 - 1 = +0.458). Given the asymmetric information (lots of negative detail on Ambrosio, none on Kucmova) the most justifiable value play from the supplied data is the away side.

Key factors

• • Ambrosio's poor overall record (10-21) and weak recent form
• • Market prices favor Ambrosio (1.55) despite her sub-35% career win rate
• • No opponent data provided increases uncertainty but implies market may be mispricing relative strengths