Highlights

• • Kraus is the overwhelming favorite by experience and career matches
• • Bookmaker price for Kraus requires a true win probability above ~99% to be +EV, which we do not assign

Pros

• + Strong justification for backing Kraus on pure likelihood
• + Low variance outcome expected given experience gap

Cons

• - No positive expected value at the quoted 1.01; return would be negative even if we estimate a high win probability
• - Ambrosio’s long odds (18.0) would require an implausibly high upset chance (>5.6%) to be profitable

Details

We compare the market prices to our win-probability estimate using only the provided player profiles. Sinja Kraus is far more experienced (559-507 career record over many years) versus Silvia Ambrosio (10-21 in a short career sample). Both show recent losses in the provided match list, but the career gap and match volume strongly favor Kraus. The market price for Kraus (1.01) implies ~99.0% chance; our estimated true probability is ~95%, which still yields a negative ROI at 1.01. Conversely, Ambrosio’s implied chance at 18.0 (~5.6%) is slightly above realistic upset frequency given the available data, but our model still values her win probability well below the break-even threshold. Therefore no side offers positive expected value at the posted prices.

Key factors

• • Large career and match-count advantage for Sinja Kraus (559-507 vs 10-21)
• • Both players show recent losses in the provided recent-match snippets, so form does not negate experience gap
• • Market heavily favors Kraus (1.01) leaving no positive EV at realistic true probabilities