Simon Reveniau vs Nicolas Ifi
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find a small but clear value on Simon Reveniau at 1.826 based on opponent form and surface indications; EV is positive but modest and carries sample-size risk.
Highlights
- • Book implied prob for home = 54.8% vs our 58.0% estimate
- • Estimated EV ≈ 5.9% on a 1-unit stake at current home price
Pros
- + Opponent (Ifi) has a poor overall win-loss profile and recent losses
- + Reveniau's limited hard-court data shows efficient serve numbers in wins
Cons
- - Very small sample for Reveniau — career dataset is limited
- - Surface for this specific match is not specified; Ifi has played hard as well
Details
We see value backing the home player, Simon Reveniau. The bookmaker-implied probability at 1.826 is 54.8%, but based on the available profiles we estimate Simon is meaningfully stronger in this matchup: Nicolas Ifi has a 9-20 career record and recent losses (particularly on clay) while Reveniau — though a small-sample player — has a 2-2 record with wins on hard and stronger serve percentages in his listed wins. The market prices are very close (1.826 vs 1.885) and carry an overround, so a modest true-edge estimate (58.0% win chance) produces positive expected value at the current home price. We acknowledge sample-size and surface uncertainty risk, so the edge is conservative but present at the quoted home price.
Key factors
- • Nicolas Ifi's overall record is weak (9-20) with recent losses
- • Simon Reveniau has better recent results on hard and higher serve effectiveness in wins
- • Market is tight with overround; small true-probability edge yields positive EV