Highlights

• • Home price (1.09) implies >91% chance — not supported by Simon’s 2-2 limited record
• • At our 15% estimate, away at 7.0 is +EV (min required odds 6.667)

Pros

• + Clear numerical edge if our estimated probabilities are reasonable
• + Large market favorite implies more potential value on the underdog

Cons

• - Limited available data on both players increases uncertainty around true probabilities
• - Edge is modest (≈5% ROI) and subject to variance in a single-match bet

Details

The market price (Home 1.09 / Away 7.0) implies the home player, Simon Reveniau, has ~91.7% win probability. Simon's published profile shows a very limited sample (career span March 2025, 4 matches, 2-2 record) and mixed recent results on hard courts, which does not convincingly support a >91% true win chance. We conservatively estimate Simon's true win probability at ~85%, leaving Paul Theate with ~15%. At that estimate the away side (7.0) offers value because 15% > the break-even threshold of ~14.29% required for a 7.0 price. EV calculation: EV_away = 0.15 * 7.0 - 1 = 0.05 (5% ROI). By contrast, backing the heavy favorite at 1.09 would require a >91.7% true probability, which our assessment does not support.

Key factors

• • Market implies an implausibly high 91.7% probability for Simon given his 2-2 pro sample
• • Simon’s limited match history and mixed recent results on hard reduce confidence in a >90% true win rate
• • Underdog price 7.0 only needs ~14.29% probability to be +EV; our 15% estimate clears that threshold