Highlights

• • Market implies only a 6.67% chance for the away; we estimate 8.0% — enough edge at 15.0
• • Minimum fair odds to break even at our estimate are 12.5; current 15.0 is substantially higher

Pros

• + Large margin between current odds and our minimum required odds (15.0 vs 12.5)
• + Conservative probability estimate still produces meaningful positive EV

Cons

• - Very limited player data (small sample) increases model uncertainty
• - Heavy variance inherent in backing longshots; outcome is binary and high-risk

Details

Market prices imply an overwhelmingly certain home win (home 1.02 -> implied 98.04%, away 15.0 -> implied 6.67%). We find the market probability for Simon Reveniau (home) unrealistically high given only the limited performance data available: a 2-2 record across four matches on hard with mixed recent results, which does not support near-100% certainty. With significant uncertainty about the opponent and no additional confirming data, we conservatively estimate Scott Ekindi's true win probability at 8.0%. At that estimate the away line of 15.0 offers positive expected value: EV = 0.08 * 15.0 - 1 = 0.20 (20% ROI). The minimum decimal odds required to justify a bet at p=0.08 is 12.5, and the current 15.0 exceeds that threshold, so this price contains value. We use the quoted away odds (15.0) for the EV calculation.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for home (98.04%) is extreme and unlikely given available form data
• • Simon Reveniau has a small sample (4 matches, 2-2) and mixed hard-court results, increasing outcome uncertainty
• • At a conservative 8% true win rate for the underdog, current away odds (15.0) offer positive expected value