Highlights

• • Okonkwo's career win-rate implies he should be a large underdog, not a 1.15 favorite
• • Home 5.0 far exceeds the min required odds (≈1.262) implied by our estimate

Pros

• + Very large upside if Okonkwo's career numbers reflect true form
• + Current market price (5.0) offers a high payoff relative to our probability estimate

Cons

• - Only data available pertains to Okonkwo; Knezevic may have factors (injury, ranking, home conditions) justifying the market price
• - Small sample size (24 matches) and limited recent-match detail increase uncertainty

Details

The only verifiable data provided is Oliver Okonkwo's career and recent form: 24 matches with a 5-19 record (≈20.8% career win rate) and recent losses on hard courts. The market price (Okonkwo away 1.15, implied ≈87.0%) is drastically higher than his documented long-term win rate. Absent any additional information on Simon Knezevic, the most conservative inference from available data is that Okonkwo's true win probability is considerably lower than the market implies. Using Okonkwo's career win-rate (5/24 = 20.83%) as our baseline implies Simon Knezevic's win probability ≈79.17%, which makes the home moneyline 5.0 deeply mispriced relative to that estimate. This produces substantial positive expected value on the home side, though the recommendation is tempered by the lack of any data on Knezevic or contextual factors the market may be pricing (injury, ranking, wildcards, walkover risks).

Key factors

• • Okonkwo career record 5-19 (≈20.8% win rate)
• • Recent form shows multiple losses on hard courts
• • Market prices Okonkwo at 1.15 (≈87% implied) which conflicts with available performance data
• • No public data provided on Simon Knezevic — large unknown that increases risk