Simon Reveniau vs Hamish Stewart

Highlights

• • Stewart: clear experience advantage and stronger match record
• • Current favorite price (1.093) implies a win probability above what the available data supports

Pros

• + Market accurately reflects a heavy favorite which reduces variance for a small stake if one still chooses to back him
• + Reveniau is priced as a longshot, so there is potential upside only if new info (injury/withdrawal) emerges

Cons

• - No positive expected value on either side at current prices
• - Reveniau's sample size and lack of demonstrable form make him a speculative play rather than value

Details

We assess that Hamish Stewart is the clear favorite based on experience (74 matches, 49-25) and proven performance on hard courts versus Simon Reveniau's very limited sample (4 matches, 2-2). The market price for Stewart (1.093, implied ~91.5%) appears too short relative to a realistic true win probability given the available information; we estimate Stewart's true win probability around 88%, not the ~91.5% implied by the price. At that estimated probability the expected value on Stewart at 1.093 is negative. Conversely, Reveniau's price (6.29, implied ~15.9%) would require a much higher true win probability than we assign to be profitable; Reveniau's limited match history and lack of demonstrated form on the profile provided do not justify the upside needed to make 6.29 a value price. Therefore no side offers positive expected value at the current market prices.

Key factors

• • Large experience and match-volume advantage for Hamish Stewart (74 matches vs 4)
• • Both players have hard-court experience, but Stewart has a deeper proven record
• • Market heavily favors Stewart (implied ~91.5%), leaving little to no margin for value given uncertainty