Simon Reveniau vs Isaac Lhomond
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value at current prices — the favorite's market odds (1.422) are slightly shorter than our conservative fair price (~1.493) given limited data, so we recommend passing.
Highlights
- • Reveniau marginal favorite by recent activity and slightly fuller sample
- • Market favorite price does not clear our conservative break-even threshold
Pros
- + Home player has slightly more recent match activity in 2025
- + Both players have hard-court experience so surface unknowns are limited
Cons
- - Extremely small datasets for both players increase forecasting error
- - Current favorite odds are slightly too short to offer positive EV
Details
We estimate Simon Reveniau is the marginal favorite based on the limited head-to-head data and more recent match activity (Reveniau 2-2 across four matches in 2025 vs Lhomond 1-1 in 2024), both on hard courts. Given the very small sample sizes and lack of injury or matchup detail, we assign a conservative true win probability for the home player of 67%. At that probability the break-even decimal price is ~1.493, which is slightly higher than the current market price of 1.422, so there is no positive expected value at available odds. The away price (2.62) would require an implied win probability of at least 38.17% to become profitable; our assessment of Lhomond is closer to 33%–35%, so that side also lacks value. Given high uncertainty from tiny sample sizes and no additional context, we recommend passing rather than taking a marginal market favorite price.
Key factors
- • Very small sample sizes for both players (high uncertainty)
- • Both players' recorded matches were on hard courts, offering no surface mismatch
- • Market prices (1.422 for Reveniau) are slightly below our conservative break-even estimate