Highlights

• • Market implies Branstine win prob ~42.4%; we estimate ~48%
• • Estimated ROI ~13.3% on a 1-unit stake at current away price

Pros

• + Clear positive EV at current widely-available price (2.36)
• + Conservative probability estimate based on parity in the research

Cons

• - Research contains limited distinguishing detail (no H2H, rankings, or injury notes)
• - Small sample uncertainty — tennis matches can be swingy and markets may reflect hidden info

Details

We see value on Carson Branstine at the current price. The research shows both players with nearly identical career profiles and recent form (no decisive edge), so the match looks much closer than the market-priced moneyline. The current market prices Waltert at 1.595 (implied ~62.7%) and Branstine at 2.36 (implied ~42.4%). Based on parity in career records, surface exposure and similar recent results, we estimate a true win probability for Branstine of 48%. That implies fair decimal odds of ~2.083; the offered 2.36 is substantially above that, producing a positive expected value. Given limited differentiating information (no clear injury/H2H advantage in the provided research), we conservatively favor Branstine as a value play rather than a large-confidence prediction.

Key factors

• • Both players have nearly identical career records and recent form in the provided data
• • Market heavily favors Waltert (1.595) while research does not justify such a large gap
• • Offered away price (2.36) exceeds our fair odds (~2.083) producing positive EV