Highlights

• • Research shows essentially equal records and surface experience between the two players
• • Current market odds (2.72) imply a much lower chance for the away player than our estimate

Pros

• + Clear positive EV at current widely-available away price (EV ≈ +0.306)
• + Min required odds (2.083) are well below offered price (2.72), indicating margin for value

Cons

• - Limited data in the provided research — no H2H, ranking, or contextual tournament factors included
• - Market may be reflecting information not in the provided sources (e.g., recent practice, fitness, seeding), which would reduce realized value

Details

We identify value on Darya Astakhova (away). The available research shows both players with nearly identical profiles and records (each 10-21 across similar surfaces) and no injury or form edge apparent in the data. The market prices Simona Waltert at 1.465 (implied ~68.3%) and Astakhova at 2.72 (implied ~36.8%). Given virtually identical win-loss records and no clear advantage in the provided information, we estimate the true win probability for Astakhova substantially higher than the market-implied 36.8%. We estimate Astakhova's true probability at 48% (0.48). At decimal odds 2.72 this yields EV = 0.48 * 2.72 - 1 = 0.3056 (30.6% ROI on a 1-unit stake). The market therefore appears to over-price Waltert and underprice Astakhova; the away price (2.72) exceeds our min required fair odds of 2.083, creating positive expected value.

Key factors

• • Both players have nearly identical career records (10-21) and recent form per provided profiles
• • No injury, H2H, or clear surface advantage shown in the research to justify the heavy market lean to the home player
• • Market-implied probability for Astakhova (36.8%) is well below our estimated true probability (48%), producing value