Highlights

• • Market implies Niemeier ~43.5%; we estimate ~45.0%, creating slight value at 2.30
• • Both players show weak recent form, so outcome variance is high despite the small edge

Pros

• + Current odds (2.30) exceed our min required odds (2.222) for value
• + Conservative probability estimate still yields positive EV

Cons

• - Edge is small (EV ≈ 3.5%) and sensitive to small changes in the probability view
• - Limited actionable information (no H2H or injury details) increases uncertainty

Details

We compared the market-implied probabilities to our assessment. The book-implied probability for Waltert at 1.621 is ~61.7% and for Niemeier at 2.30 is ~43.5% (market vig ~5.2%). Both players have nearly identical season records (Waltert 10-21, Niemeier 10-22) and have been playing mostly clay/hard with recent straight losses, so form and surface do not create a clear heavy favorite. Given the comparable head-to-head profile and Niemeier's slightly more recent match activity (08-Sep vs Waltert's 01-Sep), we assign Niemeier a modest edge versus the market and estimate her true win probability at 45.0%. At the current away decimal price of 2.30 this produces positive expected value (EV = 0.45 * 2.30 - 1 = +0.035). The edge is small but real under these conservative assumptions. Key caveats: small sample sizes, volatile recent form for both players, and absence of injury or H2H information in the dataset.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability vs our estimated probability shows a small edge on Niemeier
• • Both players have near-identical season records and mixed surfaces, limiting clear favoritism
• • Niemeier's more recent match activity suggests slightly sharper match readiness