Simona Waltert vs Jule Niemeier
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We believe Jule Niemeier is undervalued at 2.55 given the available form and serve metrics; backing the away player offers positive expected value versus the market.
Highlights
- • Market implies 39.2% for Niemeier; we estimate 45%
- • Positive EV of ~0.1475 per unit at current odds 2.55
Pros
- + Clear positive EV at widely available price (2.55)
- + No injury concerns in the provided research and marginal performance edge for Niemeier
Cons
- - Both players have poor recent win-loss records, increasing variance
- - Limited head-to-head or surface-specific detail in the provided data
Details
We find value backing Jule Niemeier at the current price. The market implies Niemeier has ~39.2% chance to win (1/2.55) while our assessment, based on the provided career and recent-match data, places her win probability at ~45%. Both players have similar career records and recent form, but Niemeier's recent serve metrics and experience in comparable events make her a slight but meaningful favorite relative to the price on offer. There are no injury flags in the provided research to discount Niemeier, and the market appears to over-favor the home name (Simona Waltert) at 1.50. Using our probability (0.45) the expected value at the current decimal odds (2.55) is positive (EV = 0.45*2.55 - 1 = 0.1475), so we recommend the away side as a value bet.
Key factors
- • Both players show similar overall records and recent losses in comparable Challenger events
- • Niemeier's recent serve metrics (1st serve won) and slightly greater match experience suggest a modest edge
- • Market-implied probability for Niemeier (39.2%) appears lower than our assessed win chance (45%), creating value