Simona Waltert vs Kaja Juvan

Highlights

• • Market implies Juvan 67.2% but provided data shows near parity between players
• • Waltert needs ≥2.326 decimal to be +EV; current 2.70 exceeds that threshold

Pros

• + Clear numerical edge on value vs market price (2.70 > 2.326 fair threshold)
• + Avoids over-reliance on uncertain form differentials — uses parity observed in provided profiles

Cons

• - Estimate depends on limited, truncated recent-match data in the research and lacks head-to-head or tournament-context detail
• - If unobserved factors (injury, matchup, ranking differences) favor Juvan, the assumed probability could be too generous to Waltert

Details

We estimate value on Simona Waltert (home) because the market strongly favors Kaja Juvan (away) at implied 67.2% while the available player data shows near-identical profiles and recent form for both players (each listed with 10-21 records over the provided span and similar surfaces played). Given the parity in the provided career/recent-match data, we believe the market overstates Juvan's edge and that Waltert's true win chance is materially higher than the 37.0% implied by 2.70. Using a conservative true probability of 43.0% for Waltert produces a required fair decimal price of 2.326; the available price of 2.70 therefore offers positive expected value. We avoid backing Juvan because at 1.488 the implied probability (67.2%) exceeds our assessment of her true chance (57.0%), producing negative EV.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical season records in the provided data (10-21), reducing a clear form-based edge
• • Recent-match snippets in the research show both with losses and no decisive superiority on the listed surfaces (Clay/Hard)
• • Market heavily favors Juvan (1.488) — our parity-based read suggests that favorite margin is overstated, creating value on Waltert