Simona Waltert vs Maja Chwalinska
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find small value on Simona Waltert at 2.08 because we estimate a ~50% chance to win, which makes the current price slightly better than fair (breakeven 2.00).
Highlights
- • Home (Waltert) required odds to be fair: 2.00; market offers 2.08
- • Estimated ROI is modest (~4%) due to limited edge and high variance
Pros
- + Market appears to over-favour Chwalinska relative to available form data
- + Decimal 2.08 provides a measurable positive EV vs our 50% probability
Cons
- - Edge is small and sensitive to small errors in probability estimate
- - Both players have poor recent form and limited clear differentiators—higher variance risk
Details
We view this as a closely matched quarterfinal based on the available profiles: both players show identical overall records (10-21) and similar recent form on hard courts, suggesting near 50/50 raw chances. The market prices Maja Chwalinska as the favourite at decimal 1.752 (implied ~57.1%) and Simona Waltert at 2.08 (implied ~48.1%); those implied probabilities diverge despite the comparable historical data. We estimate Waltert's true win probability at 50.0% (0.50). At that probability the break-even odds are 2.000; the current market price of 2.08 offers positive expected value. Calculation: EV = 0.50 * 2.08 - 1 = 0.04 (4% ROI). Given limited data and volatility in lower-tier events, we assign only a small edge, but it is a quantifiable value against the market price.
Key factors
- • Both players show identical season records (10-21) and similar surface history (hard/clay)
- • Market prices favour the away player more heavily than head-to-head/form would suggest
- • Limited and poor recent form for both increases variance and reduces confidence