Highlights

• • Waltert favored at 1.709 (implied ~58.5%)
• • Our estimated true probability for Waltert is 55%, producing a negative EV at current odds

Pros

• + Market clearly favors Waltert, so any meaningful odds drift in her favor would create value
• + Data shows both players have experience on similar surfaces, reducing unpredictability from surface mismatch

Cons

• - Provided recent form is weak for both players with losses noted, making outcomes volatile
• - No additional edges (injuries, H2H, venue advantage) are present in the research to justify a bet

Details

We assess both players from the provided profiles as closely matched: identical overall records (10-21) and similar recent results with losses listed in their last matches. The market prices show Simona Waltert as a clear favorite at 1.709 (implied ~58.5%). Given the available data there is no clear performance edge: surface history is shared (clay/hard), recent form for both is weak, and no injury or head-to-head information is provided to justify a materially higher win probability for the favorite. We estimate Waltert's true win probability at 55.0%, which is below the market-implied 58.5%, so betting the favorite at 1.709 would produce a small negative expected value. Therefore we recommend no bet at current prices. If odds for Waltert drift to >= 1.818 we would consider that value.

Key factors

• • Both players show identical overall records and similar recent match outcomes in the provided data
• • No injury, H2H, or venue-specific advantage information provided to justify exceeding market-implied probability
• • Market prices (Waltert 1.709) imply a higher probability than our conservative estimated win probability