Simona Waltert vs Renata Jamrichova

Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Waltert is ~71.7%, which is not supported by the supplied profiles.
• • At 3.07 for Jamrichova we estimate ~32% ROI on a 1-unit stake (EV ≈ +0.32).

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current widely-available odds (3.07).
• + Recommendation rests on conservative parity assessment rather than speculative form differentials.

Cons

• - Research data is limited and shows weak recent form for both players; variance is high.
• - No head-to-head, injury, or detailed match-level stats were provided to refine the estimate.

Details

We see both players with nearly identical career records and recent form (both 10-21 across clay and hard in the provided data), so there is no clear performance edge in the research. The market strongly favors Simona Waltert at decimal 1.395 (implied win prob ~71.7%), which appears inconsistent with the parity in the provided profiles and recent results. We therefore assign a more balanced true win probability of ~57% for Waltert and ~43% for Renata Jamrichova, giving value on the away moneyline at 3.07. Using 3.07 for the away side produces a positive EV (EV = 0.43 * 3.07 - 1 ≈ +0.320), indicating the market is overpricing the favorite and underpricing the underdog based on the supplied data. Key drivers: identical win-loss records, interchangeable surface histories, and similar recent losses, which do not justify the heavy favorite price.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records and recent form in the provided data (10-21).
• • Both have experience on clay and hard with no surface edge evident from the research.
• • Market strongly favors Waltert (1.395) despite the parity in available profiles, creating value on the underdog.