Highlights

• • Home implied probability 82.4% vs our 72% estimate
• • Negative EV at current price: -0.126 per 1 unit staked

Pros

• + Sinja Kraus brings clear experience advantage
• + Opponents have limited strong recent form, which supports favoritism

Cons

• - Market severely compresses the price, leaving no margin for error
• - Limited doubles-specific data and team chemistry make a >82% chance unlikely

Details

We compare the market-implied probability (home 1.214 -> ~82.4%) to our assessment of the true win probability. Sinja Kraus is the clear outperformer on paper with a long career and positive win-loss record; her partner Dominika Salkova is inexperienced with a weak record. The away pairing (Bayerlova / Sebestova) show similarly modest results and also recent losses, but the jump from their level to an 82% chance for the Kraus/Salkova team is not supported by the underlying form and limited doubles-specific data. Given the limited doubles data, mixed recent form for three players, and absence of convincing dominance indicators, we estimate the true probability substantially below the market-implied 82.4%, producing negative expected value at the current home price. Therefore we do not recommend a bet unless prices improve to at least the min_required_decimal_odds shown below.

Key factors

• • Sinja Kraus's superior career experience and higher win rate relative to the other three players
• • Three partners (Salkova, Bayerlova, Sebestova) show modest recent records with many losses — limited evidence of dominant doubles form
• • Market-implied probability (82.4%) is higher than our estimate (72%), producing negative EV at current price
• • No doubles-specific head-to-head or proven team chemistry to justify a very short price
• • Surface mix (hard/clay) and recent results show players active on similar surfaces but not in strong winning streaks