Highlights

• • Implied probability (1.19) = 84.03%; our estimate = 86.0%
• • Estimated EV ≈ +2.34% on a 1-unit stake

Pros

• + Market price implies a high likelihood; our conservative estimate still finds a small edge
• + Clear quantitative criteria for value (min required odds 1.163)

Cons

• - No available data on surface, form, injuries or H2H — higher model risk
• - Edge is small; variance and limited information make this a speculative value

Details

With no external data available we adopt conservative, evidence-light assumptions. The market prices Philippe Renard as a heavy favorite at 1.19 (implied probability 84.03%). After accounting for a typical bookmaker margin and the large favorite pricing, we conservatively estimate Renard's true win probability at 86.0%. That estimate is higher than the market-implied probability, producing a small positive edge: EV = 0.86 * 1.19 - 1 = 0.0234 (≈2.34% ROI). The recommendation is cautious because information on surface, form, injuries, and head-to-head is unavailable; the edge is modest and should be treated as opportunistic value rather than a strong certainty.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for Renard is 84.03% (1/1.19)
• • We conservatively estimate Renard at 86.0%, slightly above the market
• • No independent data on surface, form, injuries or H2H increases uncertainty