Highlights

• • Stephens priced at 3.21 implies ~31% chance to win
• • We estimate Stephens' win chance at ~38%, giving ~0.22 units EV per 1 unit staked

Pros

• + Price offers a clear edge vs our probability estimate
• + Both players' recent form and surface history suggest a tighter matchup than odds reflect

Cons

• - Both players have poor recent records, increasing upset likelihood and variance
• - No H2H or injury details available — adds model uncertainty

Details

We see the market strongly favors Stefanini at 1.379 (implied win probability ~72.9%), pricing Stephens at 3.21 (implied ~31.2%). The research available shows both players with nearly identical recent records (10-21) and experience on hard courts, suggesting their baseline levels are closer than the market implies. Taking into account Stephens' higher career profile and ability to produce occasional big wins even while inconsistent, we estimate Stephens' true win probability at 38%. That is meaningfully higher than the 31.2% implied by 3.21, producing positive expected value. There are uncertainties (similar poor recent form, lack of H2H and injury detail), so our projection is conservative but still finds value at the current price. We used the current decimal price of 3.21 for the EV calculation.

Key factors

• • Both players show similar recent records (10-21) and have played on hard courts
• • Market heavily favors Stefanini, implying Stephens is ~31% to win while our model sees ~38%
• • No reported injuries and limited H2H data increase variance and uncertainty