Sloane Stephens vs Lucrezia Stefanini

Highlights

• • Market implies big edge to Stefanini not supported by the supplied data
• • Stephens priced above required break-even odds (min required 2.083) so current price yields positive EV

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current market odds
• + Research does not show a clear form or surface advantage for the favorite

Cons

• - Limited, low-quality differentiation in the research increases uncertainty
• - Both players have poor recent records; match is high variance

Details

Market prices make Lucrezia Stefanini a clear favorite at decimal 1.581 (implied ~63.2%), while Sloane Stephens is priced as a 2.45 underdog (implied ~40.8%). The supplied research shows near-identical recent records and surface experience for both players (both listed 10-21 over the same career span with matches on clay and hard), with no injury or clear form advantage for Stefanini. Given the lack of distinguishing information in the research and comparable profiles, we view the match as much closer to even than the market implies. Conservatively estimating Stephens' true win probability at 48%, the current price of 2.45 offers positive expected value (EV = 0.48*2.45 - 1 = 0.176). Therefore we recommend backing the home player (Sloane Stephens) because the market appears to overestimate Stefanini's win chances relative to the available data.

Key factors

• • Research shows nearly identical recent records and surface experience for both players
• • Market-implied probability for Stefanini (~63%) is not supported by differentiating data in the research
• • No injuries, head-to-head, or surface edge presented in the supplied information to justify the market gap