Highlights

• • Alicia Dudeney listed career win rate ~32% and poor recent form, inconsistent with a ~95% market probability
• • Home decimal 8.62 >> fair odds ~3.333 (based on our 30% estimate), creating large positive EV

Pros

• + Very large margin between our estimated fair odds and market price (strong theoretical ROI)
• + Dudeney's documented win-loss record and recent results support a lower true probability than the market implies

Cons

• - Limited information on Sofia Alekseeva (home) increases uncertainty around our estimated probability
• - Mismatch between market extreme favorite and available public record could reflect unreported factors (injury, withdrawal, surface advantage) not present in the provided data

Details

We find clear value on the home player (Sofia Alekseeva) because the market is pricing Alicia Dudeney as an overwhelming favorite (1.056 decimal, implied ~94.7%). The provided career data for Dudeney shows a 10-21 record (≈32% overall win rate) and poor recent form, which is inconsistent with a ~95% true win probability. Conservatively estimating Dudeney's true match-winning probability at ~70% would still imply the market is heavy on the favorite; however, given her 32% career win rate and recent losses, we judge Dudeney's true win probability to be closer to 70%? (note: we instead use a more objective line: we estimate Sofia's chance at 30% (Dudeney ~70%), which implies the market is mispriced). At an estimated true probability for Sofia of 30%, the minimum fair decimal price for the home side is ~3.333; the current home price of 8.62 is substantially larger, producing a large positive expected value (EV = 0.30 * 8.62 - 1 = +1.586). Therefore we recommend betting the home player because the quoted odds offer a strong edge versus our probability estimate.

Key factors

• • Market implies Alicia Dudeney has ~94.7% chance (1/1.056), which is extreme relative to her career record
• • Dudeney career record 10-21 (~32% win rate) and recent poor form suggest lower true probability
• • Home price 8.62 implies ~11.6% win chance — we assess substantially higher true chance for the home player (~30%)