Sofia Avataneo vs Esther Adeshina
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Given identical profiles and no market-justifying information for such a heavy favorite, Sofia Avataneo at 8.5 represents strong value versus our ~40% win estimate.
Highlights
- • Research shows near-identical player records and surfaces.
- • Bookmaker implies an implausibly high probability for Esther (≈94%).
Pros
- + Large margin between our fair odds (~2.50) and the market (8.5).
- + Decision is based on parity in available data rather than thin sample assumptions.
Cons
- - Extreme market skew could reflect unreported information (injury, withdrawal, local conditions) not present in the research.
- - Small sample sizes and limited data on recent matches increase uncertainty around our probability estimate.
Details
We find clear value backing Sofia Avataneo (home). The supplied profiles show both players with effectively identical records (10-21) and recent form on similar surfaces, with no injury, head-to-head, or surface advantage information in the research to justify the market making Esther Adeshina a 94% favorite. The market price (home 8.5) implies only ~11.8% chance for Avataneo; given the parity in the available data we estimate Avataneo's true win probability materially higher at 40%. At that probability the fair decimal price is ~2.50, so the current 8.5 is a large misprice and produces a strongly positive expected return.
Key factors
- • Both players show identical career records and recent form in the provided research (10-21).
- • No injury or other disqualifying information is present to justify a 1.06 market favorite.
- • Current market odds are extremely skewed (home 8.5 vs away 1.06), implying a large pricing inefficiency.