Sofia Costoulas vs Polina Iatchenko

Highlights

• • Home implied probability (~60.5%) appears overstated relative to Sofia's 10/31 career record and form
• • Away at 2.15 offers a large margin between market-implied (≈46.5%) and our estimated (62%) probability

Pros

• + Clear numerical edge between our probability estimate and market price
• + Large positive EV (≈+0.333) at current odds

Cons

• - Analysis relies almost entirely on limited data for one player; opponent info is absent
• - Surface, injuries, and match conditions are unknown and could materially change true probabilities

Details

We base our view on the only available player data (Sofia Costoulas): a poor 10-21 career record (10 wins in 31 matches ≈ 32% baseline) and very weak recent form. The market prices the home player at 1.654 (implied ≈ 60.5%) which is substantially higher than Sofia's observable win-rate and recent results justify. Given the lack of public positive signals for the home player and no contrary information about Polina Iatchenko, we conservatively adjust Sofia's true win probability higher than raw career rate but still below market pricing and set Sofia ≈ 38% and Iatchenko ≈ 62%. The away price 2.15 (implied ≈ 46.5%) therefore appears to offer value versus our estimated true probability. At p=0.62 the minimum fair odds are 1.613; the available 2.15 produces EV = 0.62*2.15 - 1 ≈ +0.333 (33.3% ROI). We recommend backing the away player only because EV>0 at the displayed market price; uncertainty remains due to limited opponent data and surface/context unknowns.

Key factors

• • Sofia Costoulas has a poor season record (10-21) and weak recent form
• • Bookmaker-implied probabilities favor Sofia (~60.5%) which conflicts with her observable win-rate
• • Lack of public data on Polina Iatchenko increases model uncertainty but market pricing (2.15) implies underestimation of her chances